This photo, provided April 8 by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, shows a test of what North Korea claimed was an underwater nuclear-capable attack drone called Haeil-2, in North Korea's waters. Yonhap

'Weapon capabilities may have been exaggerated, but allies should take it seriously'

By Jung Min-ho

After North Korea claimed it successfully tested a nuclear-capable underwater attack drone recently, South Korea's military immediately played it down, saying the capabilities of the weapon may have been exaggerated or even faked.

That may be true. But, if left undisturbed, it could grow into a significant threat to Seoul and, in the long run, to its defense alliance with Washington, analysts told The Korea Times Monday.

"One of North Korea's main goals in diversifying its delivery means for nuclear weapons is to increase the defense burden for South Korea and the United States. In that sense, the North will likely achieve what it wants by making the announcement," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.

"The regime may be in the early phase of developing the weapon. But that would force Seoul and Washington to prepare for the threat. It takes a great deal of technology and, of course, resources to develop detection systems for such underwater weapons … We also should keep in mind that it is just one of 20 new weapons systems Pyongyang has revealed since 2019."

In the past three weeks, North Korea conducted three tests of what it claimed were nuclear-capable underwater attack drones designed to destroy ports and warships. The latest one tested between April 4 and 7, Haeil-2, traveled some 1,000 kilometers underwater for more than 71 hours before successfully detonating a mock warhead in the desired location near the eastern port city of Tanchon, South Hamgyong Province, the North's state media reported.

This comes with tests of other types of underwater drones ― Haeil and Haeil-1 ― which it said are capable of setting off a "radioactive tsunami" against enemies. The tests have "perfectly proved" the reliability of the weapon, North Korea claimed.

"There are two important questions," said Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank. "First, given that the weapon is powered by an electric motor, does North Korea have the technology to make batteries that can last for 72 hours in water? Second, does North Korea have a system that can trace the target and detonate explosives underwater? What's been revealed so far does not answer those questions."

The Republic of Korea Navy's Aegis destroyer Yulgok Yi I, front row right, U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, center, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Umigiri, front row left, travel in formation during a joint naval exercise in international waters off South Korea's southern Jeju Island, April 4. The South Korean, U.S. and Japanese navies began their first anti-submarine drills in six months the previous day to boost their coordination against increasing North Korean threats. Courtesy of South Korea's Ministry of National Defense

Some experts say the North is trying to copy Russia's Poseidon, a nuclear-capable torpedo that can be carried by a nuclear-powered submarine. But the regime's mastery of the complex technology required for such weaponry is likely still far-fetched. That does not mean that it will forever be impossible, however.

"Given that the North has nuclear weapons and developing delivery means for the weapons are considered less challenging than, say, a nuclear-tipped ICBM, it is expected to continue trying to acquire that ability," Shin said.

Once completed, among the primary targets of the weapon would be South Korea's ports in southern regions and Japan's territory where powerful U.S. military assets are located, Shin added. "This may require more effective communication and collaboration with not just the U.S. but also Japan, which is equipped with advanced detection ability for such underwater threats," he said.

Over the past two years, North Korea has intensified its provocations while introducing new weapons systems in an apparent effort to diversify its delivery mechanisms as well as the scope of its nuclear arsenal.

Experts warn that North Korea is likely to increase threat levels in the coming week as it celebrates the 111th birthday of its founder, Kim Il-sung, on April 15.